Market Timing – Parrott Wealth Management, LLC.

Same Fund, Different Day

May 20, 2023Posted in InvestmentsTagged Investment Management, Market Timing, Stock Market, Stock Market CrashLeave a comment

Vanguard’s Balanced Index fund is a solid performer, averaging 8% annually for three decades. The fund is a mixture of stocks and bonds, a standard 60/40 asset allocation. However, your individual returns will vary greatly depending on your market timing skills.

February 18, 2020

Concerns over COVID crashed the market the day you purchased the fund; one month later, you’re down 21.5%, but it eventually recovered, returning 13.27%, or 3.91% annually. A $100,000 investment is worth $113,270 – not a great return, but it’s better than losing money!

March 20, 2020

If you waited one month to buy the fund, your account was up 44.5% by the end of the year. Your timing was perfect, and your friends and family think you’re a financial genius. The fund has averaged 12.30% per year, and your $100,000 is now worth $144,350.

December 30, 2021

You sat on the sidelines during the COVID correction, and after watching the Vanguard Balance Fund rise, you finally invested. Trouble! You’ve lost 11.8%, turning $100,000 into $88,190, and you’re probably upset and kicking yourself for not waiting until market conditions improve.

October 12, 2022

You deferred your purchase to October 12, 2022 – a smart move. The fund is up 11.75%, and your $100,000 investment is worth $111,750.

February 2, 2023

It’s Groundhog Day, and, so far, the market peak, and after three months, you’re down 1.13%. Your $100,000 is worth $98,870.

March 10, 2023

You picked the near-term bottom, and your account is up 4.88%. If the trend continues, you could earn more than 28% on your investment. Your $100,000 investment is worth $104,880.

November 9, 1992

Vanguard launches the Balanced Index Fund, and you invest $100,000, and you don’t make any changes to your holding, and it is now worth $1.04 million. You’ve done well!

Time eclipses timing. Do not worry about the daily gyrations in the market because you will never buy at the low or sell at the top. Instead, focus on your financial goals and let the long-term trend of the market work for you and your family.

You make most of your money in a bear market; you just don’t realize it at the time. ~ Shelby Cullom Davis

May 20, 2023

Bill Parrott, CFP®, is the President and CEO of Parrott Wealth Management in Austin, Texas. Parrott Wealth Management is a fee-only, fiduciary, registered investment advisor firm. Our goal is to remove complexity, confusion, and worry from the investment and financial planning process so our clients can pursue a life of purpose. Our firm does not have an asset or fee minimum, and we work with anybody who needs financial help regardless of age, income, or asset level. PWM’s custodian is TD Ameritrade, and our annual fee starts at .5% of your assets and drops depending on your asset level.

Note: Investments are not guaranteed and do involve risk. Your returns may differ from those posted in this blog. PWM is not a tax advisor, nor do we give tax advice. Please consult your tax advisor for items that are specific to your situation. Options involve risk and aren’t suitable for every investor. Prices and yields are for today only and are subject to change without notice.

Time To Buy?

August 1, 2022Posted in InvestmentsTagged Investment Management, Market Timing, Stock TradingLeave a comment

The Nasdaq soared more than 12% in July, its best monthly return since 2020. Small-cap stocks, international holdings, and bonds also participated in the broad-based rally, providing some relief to weary investors. The markets are trying to recover from rising interest rates and persistent inflation, and since the near-term bottom in June, the Nasdaq is up 16.5%. Will the trend continue? Is it time to buy?

The Nasdaq was down 32% when it touched its June low, and if you panicked and sold, you may suffer from FOMO. Of course, no one knows what will happen tomorrow, but the recovery looks robust so far, particularly if inflation retreats and interest rates subside.

Let’s explore projected recovery times for portfolios with three different allocations and investment holdings.

An evenly balanced portfolio of stocks and bonds, 50% stocks and 50% bonds, produced an average annual return of 8.3% since 1926.[1] If you keep this allocation, it could take about three years to recover your loss if you were down 20% to start the year.
If you sold your investments after a 20% drop, it would take approximately twelve years to recover your loss if you only invested in US T-Bills yielding 2%.
If you were down 20% and buried your money in a bank account earning 0.1%, you would never recoup your loss because it would take 224 years to compound your interest payments.

It’s tempting to call a market bottom and buy stocks, but no one knows when they will recover. And the market does not go up in a straight line. They fluctuate like the tide. From 1995 to 1999, the Nasdaq climbed 441%, generating an average annual return of 40%! Staggering! Despite the meteoric rise, it routinely fell 10% or more, and in October 1998, it dropped 30%. If you remained invested through the dips, dives, and drops, you enjoyed exceptional returns, but if you liquidated your holdings, your returns were significantly less.

If you sold your holdings these past few months, is it time to repurchase them? Let’s examine a few scenarios.

Do not buy stocks if your time horizon is one year or less. Buy T-Bills or keep your funds in a savings account or money market fund.
Is the money earmarked for a significant purchase like a downpayment, tuition bill, or new car? If so, do not buy stocks. Keep your money in short-term cash investments.
Buy stocks if your time horizon is three to five years or more. Time wins, and stocks recover, so take advantage of down days to buy quality funds and companies.
Are you working and contributing to your company’s retirement plan? If so, keep buying. 401(k) plans are an excellent tool for creating generational wealth because you buy stocks every two weeks regardless of the market conditions.
Is your money invested in an IRA that you can’t touch for decades? If so, buy stocks.
Buy stocks if the bear market is not impacting your financial plan or long-term goals. A financial plan is paramount if you want to succeed as an investor.

Our investment philosophy is to buy and hold diversified portfolios of stocks and bonds through low-cost mutual funds or ETFs because we don’t know when, where, or why markets will recover, and trying to time the market is a fool’s errand. It’s like getting on an airplane after it has taken off; it’s impossible. Rather than selling stocks when they fall, follow your financial plan, think long-term, and buy the dip.

Success is a result of consistent practice of winning skills and actions. There is nothing miraculous about the process. There is no luck involved. ~ Bill Russell

August 1, 2022

Bill Parrott, CFP®, is the President and CEO of Parrott Wealth Management, located in Austin, Texas. Parrott Wealth Management is a fee-only, fiduciary, registered investment advisor firm. Our goal is to remove complexity, confusion, and worry from the investment and financial planning process so you can pursue a life of purpose. Our firm does not have an asset or fee minimum, and we work with anybody who needs financial help regardless of age, income, or asset level. PWM’s custodian is TD Ameritrade, and our annual fee starts at .5% of your assets and drops depending on the level of your assets. We have waived our financial planning fee for the remainder of the year, so your cost is $0.00.

Note: Investments are not guaranteed and do involve risk. Your returns may differ from those posted in this blog. PWM is not a tax advisor, nor do we give tax advice. Please consult your tax advisor for items that are specific to your situation. Options involve risk and aren’t suitable for every investor. I like watching Shark Tank, and Wall Street was one of my favorite movies. I’m a Los Angeles Lakers fan, but I always admired the Celtics and Bill Russell.

[1] DFA Returns Web

How to Survive a Stock Market Crash

December 6, 2021Posted in InvestmentsTagged Bear Market, Financial Planning, Market Timing, Stock Market Crash, Trading, Wealth ManagementLeave a comment

The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded to all-time highs before the Omicron variant spooked investors. In less than two weeks, the Dow fell about 7%. Stock market corrections are common, occurring nearly every three to five years and lasting approximately 18 months, while a bull market runs for about eight years.[1] Crashes are violent but short-lived. Wise investors can profit from those who panic.

Pointer dog looking into the box with surprise

How do you protect yourself against a bear market? Here are a few suggestions.

Don’t panic! Market drops are painful but common.
Don’t change your portfolio during the initial phase of a market correction. Let the market find its footing before adjusting your investments.
Cash is king. If you have a cash cushion, you’re less likely to make rash decisions regarding your stock holdings. How much cash is enough? My recommendation is to hold three to six months of expenses in cash. If your monthly expenses are $10,000, your cash account should be $30,000 to $60,000.
Buy bonds. While stocks fell, bonds rose. During the recent selloff in stocks, bonds rose nearly 3%. Bonds are a safety net.
Diversify your assets. A balanced portfolio of stocks, bonds, and cash will soften the blow from a market drop. During market drops, bonds perform well. In 2008, long-term U.S. government bonds rose 25.9% while stocks dropped 45%.[2]
Rebalance your portfolio. If you rebalance your portfolio, you can buy investments at lower prices. Rebalancing your accounts keeps your risk level and asset allocation in check.
Eliminate margin. One way to lose more money than you intended is to use leverage. If you margin your securities, I would eliminate it. Margin can worsen a bad situation by adding leverage in a down market.
Stay invested. The two days following the stock market crash of October 19, 1987, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded 16%. Despite the dramatic drop on Black Monday, the Dow ended 1987 in positive territory, and it has since risen 1,920%, including the recent selloff.[3]
Look for bargains. Is your favorite stock now 25% cheaper? If so, consider buying the dip. If you’re unsure what to purchase, buy a broad-based index fund like Vanguard’s Total Stock Market Index (VTI).
Think long-term. You may own your investments for years, maybe decades, before you need the money, so think generationally.
Markets recover. The stock market has always recovered! It may take time, but they eventually rebound.

Stock market corrections come and go, and the market is a long-term wealth creation machine occasionally interrupted with short-term pullbacks. Do not fear a downdraft. Instead, use it as an opportunity to buy excellent companies at enhanced prices.

“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections than has been lost in corrections themselves.” ~ Peter Lynch

December 6, 2021

Bill Parrott, CFP®, is the President and CEO of Parrott Wealth Management located in Austin, Texas. Parrott Wealth Management is a fee-only, fiduciary, registered investment advisor firm. Our goal is to remove complexity, confusion, and worry from the investment and financial planning process so our clients can pursue a life of purpose. Our firm does not have an asset or fee minimum, and we work with anybody who needs financial help regardless of age, income, or asset level. PWM’s custodian is TD Ameritrade, and our annual fee starts at .5% of your assets and drops depending on the level of your assets.

[1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/robertlenzner/2015/01/02/bull-markets-last-five-times-longer-than-bear-markets/#12745f772dd5, Robert Lenzer, January 2, 2015, site accessed 3/10/17.

[2] Dimensional Fund Advisors 2016 Matrix Book.

[3] YCharts. DJIA – October 19, 1987 to December 6, 2021

When To Sell?

April 7, 2021Posted in InvestmentsTagged Bear Market, Financial Planning, Market Timing, Stock Market Crash, Stocks, Wealth ManagementLeave a comment

The stock market is trading at all-time highs. The S&P 500 topped 4,000 this week, it’s up more than 53% over the past year, and investors are euphoric. As the market climbs, is it time to sell stocks? Unfortunately, there is no one simple answer for everyone, so let’s examine a few reasons to sell your holdings.

You need money. If you don’t have an emergency fund or your cash balance is low, sell some shares to meet your needs.
You need your money in one year or less. Stocks have generated substantial returns over time, but they can be extremely volatile in the short term, producing significant gains or painful losses. If stocks drop when you need the money the most, it may impact your goal.
You’re 100% invested in stocks. If you’re allocated 100% to equities, sell shares to add bonds or cash to your portfolio. The bonds and cash will lower the volatility in your account.
Your risk exposure is too high. Last year, stocks soared. If you didn’t rebalance your account, your stock exposure might be too high. For example, if your target equity exposure is 70% and jumped to 80% last year, sell 10% of your holdings to reduce your risk.
One or two stocks dominate your portfolio. If a stock accounts for more than 25% of your assets, consider selling some shares to reduce your exposure to 10% or less.

According to Dimensional Fund Advisors, when stocks reach all-time highs, they keep going. After one year, stocks were 14% higher.[1] As stocks continue to rise, enjoy the ride. Don’t worry about a correction, instead focus on your goals and your plan. If your plan is working, stay the course.

Given a 10% chance of a 100 times payoff, you should take that bet every time.” — Jeff Bezos

April 7, 2021

[1] DFA 4S Framework: Stock Market Conditions – 1926 to 2018.

Control

April 5, 2021Posted in UncategorizedTagged Control, Investing, Market Timing, Stocks, Wealth ManagementLeave a comment

Markets are soaring to all-time highs as the world awakes from its COVID slumber. Year-to-date, the Dow Jones and S&P 500 hit record highs, and the NASDAQ is not far behind. Since the Covid outbreak, all three indices have performed well.

However, if you’re not saving money or can’t control your spending, you will never build generational wealth. Saving and spending are the only two things you can regulate. Market forces drive stock prices and interest rates.

Don’t worry about outperforming the market. If you save and invest regularly, the market will take care of itself and bring you along for the ride.

April 5, 2021

What will the market do?

January 6, 2021January 5, 2021Posted in InvestmentsTagged Index Funds, Market Timing, Stock Market Crash, Wealth ManagementLeave a comment

A popular question this time of year is: What will the market do? I don’t know. I can guess, of course, but it’s just a guess. But, more importantly, what market are you referencing? Stocks? Bonds? Gold? Bitcoin? YCharts identifies twenty-one major indices and tracks several thousand more from ninety different providers. Morningstar follows more than 85,000 global markets.

Last year, market returns varied significantly. The NASDAQ was up 45%, while the energy index fell 33% – a spread of 78%! Small-cap stocks rose 11.9%, real estate dropped 10.9%. Long-term bonds rose 12.4%, junk bonds fell 1%. And the ever-popular 60/40 index rose 6% after being declared dead and obsolete last year.

Some investors are concerned about the valuations of the market. I assume they’re worried about our US market, but I’m not entirely sure. The United States has three primary indices – NASDAQ, S&P 500, and Dow Jones. It’s possible to have exposure to a dozen different indices in a diversified portfolio where the US allocation accounts for about 25%. Does it make sense to liquidate an entire portfolio because of one overvalued market? It does not.

Rather than worry about the market, concentrate on your personal goals, save your money, think long-term, and buy the dip.

January 5, 2021

Dry Powder

June 20, 2019June 19, 2019Posted in UncategorizedTagged Financial Planning, Investing, Market Timing, Stock Market Crash, Stock Trading, Wealth ManagementLeave a comment

Active stock traders need to keep some dry powder so they can buy stocks when the stock market falls. Dry powder usually means cash. Allocating a portion of your portfolio to cash will be a drag on your returns, especially in a low interest rate environment with a rising stock market.

Traders need to be nimble so they can pounce on stocks when they drop. A cash hoard gives them the opportunity to act quickly without selling another position. This strategy works well when stocks fall, and they act on their impulse. If they time their purchase correctly, they can make a lot of money. Of course, if they don’t act quickly or time their purchase correctly, their strategy is for not. In a stock picker’s market cash is needed.

Traders look for fallen angels and Boeing is a classic example. Due to their unfortunate tragedies, the stock has dropped from its high of $440. Traders felt that Boeing below $400 was a bargain. The stock went through $400 like a hot knife through butter, falling another $62 to $338. Traders took their dry powder to buy it at $400 only to see their investment fall 15%.

Timing the market is extremely difficult. According to one study, asset allocation accounts for 93.6% of your investment return with the remaining 6.4% attributed to market timing and investment selection.[1]

During the fourth quarter of 2018 the Dow Jones fell 12.5% and investors withdrew $183 billion in mutual fund assets. Investors were storing up some dry powder, I guess. This year investors have added $21 billion to mutual funds, or 11.5% of what they took out last year. Meanwhile, the Dow has risen 13.8%. Dry powder?

A better strategy for most investors is to own a portfolio of low-cost index funds, diversified across asset classes, sectors and countries. This portfolio will give you exposure to thousands of securities doing different things at different times. It will allow you to stay fully invested because you never know when, where, why, or how the stock market will take off. It reduces your risk of market timing and eliminates the cash drag on your performance.

But what if, or when, the market falls? In a balanced portfolio you will own bonds of different maturities. For example, during the Great Recession stocks fell 56%. Long-term bonds were up 16.6% while intermediate bonds stayed steady at 2.94%. Dimensional Fund Advisors Five-Year Global Fixed Income fund rose 4.9%. True, they did not offset the entire drop-in stocks, but they did hold their own.

It’s possible, and recommended, to rebalance an index portfolio on a regular basis. When your asset allocation changes, rebalance your portfolio to return it to its original allocation. This strategy allows you to buy low and sell high on a regular basis. I once heard an advisor compare rebalancing to getting your haircut. When your hair gets too long, cut it back to its original length.

Shouldn’t stock pickers make money in a stock picker’s market? According to Morningstar only 24% of active equity mutual fund money managers beat their passive index over a 10-year period.[2] Is it possible to pick the top quartile funds every year for the next ten years? Doubtful.

Dimensional Fund Advisor’s found that over a 20-year period only 42% of equity funds survived. Their database started with 2,414 funds and only 1,013 survived twenty years. If more than half the funds fail, how will you be able to pick the top 25%?[3]

Rather than keeping dry powder or trying to time the market, focus on your financial goals and invest in a balanced portfolio of low-cost index funds.

Don’t let dry powder blow up your portfolio!

My mission in life is not merely to survive, but to thrive; and to do so with some passion, some compassion, some humor, and some style. ~ Maya Angelou

June 19, 2019

Bill Parrott, CFP®, CKA® is the President and CEO of Parrott Wealth Management located in Austin, Texas. Parrott Wealth Management is a fee-only, fiduciary, registered investment advisor firm. Our goal is to remove complexity, confusion, and worry from the investment and financial planning process so our clients can pursue a life of purpose.

Note: Investments are not guaranteed and do involve risk. Your returns may differ than those posted in this blog. PWM is not a tax advisor, nor do we give tax advice. Please consult your tax advisor for items that are specific to your situation.

[1] Determinants of Portfolio Performance, Financial Analyst Journal, July/August 1986, Vol 42, No. 4, 6 pages; Gary P. Brinson, L. Randolph Hood, Gilbert L. Beebower.

[2] https://office.morningstar.com/research/doc/911724/U-S-Active-Passive-Barometer-7-Takeaways-from-the-2018-Report, Ben Johnson, February 7, 2019

[3] file:///C:/Users/parro/Downloads/2019%20Mutual%20Fund%20Landscape_%20Report.pdf

What if I’m Wrong?

January 23, 2019January 23, 2019Posted in UncategorizedTagged Financial Planning, Investment Management, Market Timing, Retirement Planning, Wealth ManagementLeave a comment

Being wrong is no fun just ask the referees from the recent NFC playoff game between the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints.

Timing is everything and sometimes the difference between right and wrong is a split-second decision. Of course, no one wants to be wrong, but it’s a part of life.

I believe stocks will generate wealth for years to come, but what if I’m wrong? What if you invest at the wrong time and lose money? Can you recover from a sharp sell off? Since 1926 stocks have risen about three quarters of the time and generated an average annual return of 10%. They’ve created wealth for legions of investors but what if it’s different this time?

Let’s look back at four difficult times for investors: 1929, 1973, 2000 and 2008.

1929

On January 1, 1929 an investor who started with $1,000,000 and allocated their holdings to 60% stocks, 40% bonds lost money for six straight years before recovering in 1935 with a value of $1,018,082. The stock component of $600,000 fell 65% to $207,961 by the end of 1932. The bond portfolio never dipped below $400,000. The returns weren’t great, but over 20 years the portfolio generated an average annual return of 3.8%. From 1929 to 1949 stocks rose 50% of the time, bonds 85%. At the end of 1949 the portfolio was worth $2,188,086, a gain of $1,188,086.

1973

An investor with a $1,000,000 portfolio and an allocation of 60% stocks, 40% bonds in 1973 had to wait until 1976 before their account was profitable. The combined portfolio generated an average annual return of 7.05% from 1973 to 1983. Stocks fell 37% in the first two years, but they made money 63% of the time, bonds made money 54%. The $1,000,000 portfolio was worth $2,114,774 at the end of 1983, a gain of $1,114,774.

2000

An investor with $1,000,000 and an allocation of 60% stocks, 40% bonds had to wait until 2003 before their portfolio recovered. Stocks fell 37% from 2000 to 2002 and their bonds never lost money. In fact, from 2000 to 2018 bonds outperformed stocks by a wide margin. Stocks averaged 4.65% annually while bonds returned 6.87%. The combined portfolio turned $1,000,000 into $2,834,987 at the end of 2018, a gain of $1,834,987. Stocks rose 74% of the time, bonds 79%. The combined portfolio generated an average annual return of 5.64%.

2008

An investor with $1,000,000 and an allocation of 60% stocks, 40% bonds had to wait two years before their portfolio recovered. In 2008 stocks fell 37% and bonds rose 26%. Stocks rose 81% of the time, bonds 63%. The combined portfolio returned 6.44% per year and the portfolio grew to $1,987,575 at the end of 2018, a gain of $987,575.

Despite investing during some of the worst times in history, these portfolios still generated positive returns over time. A courageous investor made money by staying the course. Trying to time the market and panicking during downturns will do more harm than good. If you’re a long-term investor, ignore the short-term ripples in the market.

Now faith is confidence in what we hope for and assurance about what we do not see. ~ Hebrews 11:1

January 23, 2019

Bill Parrott is the President and CEO of Parrott Wealth Management located in Austin, Texas. Parrott Wealth Management is a fee-only, fiduciary, registered investment advisor firm. Our goal is to remove complexity, confusion, and worry from the investment and financial planning process so our clients can pursue a life of purpose.

Note: Investments are not guaranteed and do involve risk. Your returns may differ than those posted in this blog. The returns were calculated based on the data from the 2015 Ibbotson® SBBI® Classic Year Book.

Losers

August 27, 2018Posted in UncategorizedTagged Basketball, Financial Planning, Globetrotters, Investing, Investment Management, Market TimingLeave a comment

The Washington Generals have been playing basketball since 1952. During their tenure they’ve won three games, one in each of the following years – 1954, 1958 and 1971.[1] Despite their lackluster output they repeatedly play in front of sold out crowds at over 450 events per year. Why? It’s because their primary opponent is the Harlem Globetrotters.

The Globetrotters win most of their basketball games and, as a result, the Generals must endure a constant thumping. They are perennial “losers” because of their role, however, they’re really winners because of their long-term association with the Globetrotters.

Some investors are classified as “losers” because they routinely purchase stock at the wrong time. They buy stocks when the market hits an all-time high or just before a correction.

The last three corrections in the stock market have been the Great Recession, The Tech Wreck, and Black Monday. If you invested 100% of your money in the stock market on the eve of these three catastrophic events, how would your portfolio have fared?

The Great Recession occurred from October 2007 to March 2009 and the S&P 500 fell 57%. A $100,000 investment in October 2007 fell to $43,000 in March 2009. If you sold during the dark days of the recession, you would’ve lost 57% of your investment. If you held on, your original investment is now worth $226,000 – a gain of 127%! You generated an average annual return of 7.84% from 2007 to 2018.[2]

The Tech Wreck happened from April 2000 to October 2002. During this rout, the S&P 500 dropped 43%. A $100,000 investment in April 2000 fell to $60,000 by September 2002. You lost 43% if you sold at the bottom. If you held, your original investment is now worth $263,000 – a gain of 163%.[3]

The stock market crash on October 19, 1987 was frightening. The market fell 22% on Black Monday after falling 4.5% the previous Friday. If you invested $100,000 on Thursday, October 15, 1987, you were down more than 26% by the market close on Monday. After two days of investing you lost $26,000. However, 31 years later, your original investment is now worth $1.64 million. You made 1,543% on your investment, or 9.5% per year![4]

If you happen to be a loser and buy stocks at the wrong time, hang on, because, like the Globetrotters, the stock market usually wins in the end.

“I have never known anyone who could consistently time the market. And in fact, I’ve never known anyone who knows anyone, who was able to consistently time the market.” ~ Burton Malkiel

August 26, 2018

Bill Parrott is the President and CEO of Parrott Wealth Management firm located in Austin, Texas. Parrott Wealth Management is a fee-only, fiduciary, registered investment advisor firm. Our goal is to remove complexity, confusion, and worry from the investment and financial planning process.

Note: Investments are not guaranteed and do involve risk. Your returns may differ than those posted in this blog.

Photo Credit: Andrey Popov

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_Generals#Beating_the_Harlem_Globetrotters, website accessed 8/28/18.

[2] Morningstar Office Hypothetical – results as of 7/31/2018.

[3] Ibid

[4] Ibid

Tag: Market Timing

Same Fund, Different Day

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Time To Buy?

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How to Survive a Stock Market Crash

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When To Sell?

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Control

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What will the market do?

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Dry Powder

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What if I’m Wrong?

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Losers

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